Atención

Búsqueda avanzada
Buscar en:   Desde:
 
Social Vulnerability and Demographic Dynamics in Argentina, 2001-07
González, Leandro M.
XXVI IUSSP INTERNATIONAL POPULATION CONFERENCE. INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR SCIENTIFIC STUDY OF POPULATION, Marrakech (Marruecos), 2009.
  ARK: https://n2t.net/ark:/13683/ptoh/rRS
Resumen
An adjustment procedure of small population projections Is proposed in this paper, combining the techniques of components projections and symptomatic variables. Based on projections with two or more different migration scenario, symptomatic variables allow selecting the closest projection to poscensal estimation or defining a new projection. The poscensal migration derives from the proportional difference between the estimated population by symptomatic variables and the closer projections. This methodology is particularly useful in populations with high migratory movements. It is applied to Colon department (Cordoba, Argentina), a 100.000-inhabitant population, with an annual migration rate of 17 ‰ in 1991-2001 period. Population estimates are made until 2006 with records of births, deaths, primary students and voters. The 2008 provincial census allows evaluating the errors of estimates by symptomatic variables, and selecting the most effective procedures. KEY WORDS: POPULATION PROJECTION – SYMPTOMATIC VARIABLES – SMALL POPULATION
Texto completo
Dirección externa:
Creative Commons
Esta obra está bajo una licencia de Creative Commons.
Para ver una copia de esta licencia, visite https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es.